Basketball Junkie

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Michigan State
2. Purdue
3. Ohio State
4. Wisconsin
5. Illinois
6. Minnesota
7. Northwestern
8. Indiana
9. Penn State
10. Michigan
11. Iowa

The Big Ten looks loaded this year. A quick look at the all-conference teams below shows that this is a very experienced conference (eight seniors and a junior on my all-conference squads), and with a 09-10 Final Four team (Michigan State) and a team that was a key injury away from being a Final Four contender (Purdue) returns almost all of their key contributors, clearly the top of the heap here is very talented. Given those two squad’s past success and key returnees, they are the co-favorites in the league with the Spartans getting a bit of a nod due to slightly fewer question marks.

However, the next tier of teams, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois, will likely be right on the heels of the leaders all season long. Ohio State and Illinois both feature intriguing mixes of returning experience and incoming talent, while Wisconsin is Wisconsin and you can pencil them in for about 12 conference wins and 25 wins on the season today.

Those top two tiers in the league are the teams that should be fairly comfortable on Selection Sunday with their lot; the next tier (Minnesota and Northwestern) is made up of teams who could be a little nervous that day. An early guess? Both teams get in.

And then there’s the bottom tier, teams that are either rebuilding or should be rebuilding. Penn State and Indiana both have some players that could carry their teams at times, but lack the overall roster to compete for an upper-division finish in such a talented league. Michigan could finish higher just on the strength of John Bielein and his system, but Iowa, poor Iowa and new head coach Fran McCaffrey, could have a rough season with a remade roster and a program starting all over from scratch.

All-Big Ten First Team
G Kalin Lucas, Sr, Michigan State
G Talor Battle, Sr, Penn State
F Mike Davis, Sr, Illinois
F Jon Leuer, Sr, Wisconsin
C Jared Sullinger, Fr, Ohio State

All-Big Ten Second Team
G E’Twaun Moore, Sr, Purdue
G William Buford, Jr, Ohio State
F Robbie Hummel, Sr, Purdue
F Kevin Coble, Sr, Northwestern
C JaJuan Johnson, Sr, Purdue

All-Freshman Team
G Tim Hardaway Jr., Michigan
G Roy Marble Jr., Iowa
F Jereme Richmond, Illinois
F DeShaun Thomas, Ohio State
C Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

Thad Matta has got a little bit of a thing going on in Columbus. Sure, the Buckeyes lose the national player of the year Evan Turner to the NBA. But the way Matta is rolling right now, he just reloads with the number one recruiting class in the nation (according to ESPN – Scout.com has them as the third best recruiting class). And it’s not like the cupboard was emptied after last season’s sweet 16 run: four starters return, seniors David Lighty, Jon Diebler and Dallas Lauderdale and junior William Buford.

But, things of course will have to be shaken up a bit to replace Turner, as none of the four returnees can run the point for the Buckeyes, and the two players that gave Turner a bit of a blow running the offense, P.J. Hill and Jeremie Simmons, were both seniors. Into the fray will step one of two freshmen points: Aaron Craft or Lenzelle Smith, two very different point guards. Where Craft is a small, quick, energetic guard, Smith is more of a power guard with a big body and the ability to back down smaller defenders. Whoever wins the battle for the starting spot will be spelled by the other, as an excellent change-of-pace reserve.

Alongside the winner of the battle for the point guard position will likely be at least three of the four returning starters. It would be surprising if any of Lighty, Diebler and Buford do not start in 2010-11, but Lauderdale may be in for a battle for his position, as Jared Sullinger, one of the top five recruits in the nation (ESPN’s #2, Scout’s #4) joins the squad. Sullinger is an excellent offensive center with post moves and shooting range out to 18 feet, and he may force Lauderdale – a player whose offensive range is “a dunk or closer” according to Bill Raftery – to contribute as a reserve. Freshman forward DeShaun Thomas, a guy who is either an undersized four or a very strong three, will also make a push for a starting spot, but given that you can only start five, may have to settle for making his impact off the pine.

The recruiting class is rounded out by scoring guard Jordan Sibert and Sullinger’s high school teammate, J.D. Weatherspoon, an athletic, high-flying combo forward. Additional depth will come from senior power forward Nicola Kecman and junior center Zisis Sarikopolous, both of whom will have to improve drastically to get any type of serious minutes.

There will be as much talent in Columbus as ever next season (which is saying a whole lot), but the season could hinge on getting one of those freshman point guards to play like something other than a freshman by the time March rolls around. While neither Buford, Lighty nor Diebler are great ballhandlers, each are good enough that they can ease the demands on the point, which should allow Matta’s athletic and talented offensive players to excel. While Michigan State and Purdue may remain co-favorites in the Big Ten (depending on the decisions of Purdue’s E’Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson), Ohio State will again be a sleeper to take down the conference title.